The draw for the 2009 Australian Open was made yesterday/today depending on where you are in the world. This post will breakdown each quarter leading to the semi finals. This is a very interesting time in men’s tennis with so much depth. That will create many interesting match ups not to mention the fact that each of the last three years one of the players in the final was in his first Grand Slam final. Despite the fact that there are a distinct top 4 players, I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened again this year.
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Nadal Quarter
Nadal has a very interesting quarter to say the least. He shouldn’t be troubled through the first few rounds as he should be able to defeat #29 Dmitry Tursunov or Tommy Haas in the third round. The fourth round however could be much trickier. Richard Gasquet floating at #24 is dangerous because he has the shot making to blow Nadal off the court, and he has had a decent start to 2009. Also #13 Fernando Gonzalez has done well here in the past, and his go fro broke style could give Nadal trouble as well. Out of the bottom part of this quarter Gilles Simon is the highest seed at #6 but he could have trouble with two big servers Ivo Karlovic or Mario Ancic in the third round. Gael Monfils is playing great right now but will be tested in a second round match against Mikhail Youzhny who should be a seeded player based on his talent.
This quarter is loaded with amazing first round matches. In one grouping four former top ten players are next to each other with Lleyton Hewitt facing Gonzalez and Guillermo Canas facing Nicolas Kiefer. Tommy Haas vs. Eduardo Schwank will also be an interesting encounter as Schwank shot up the rankings last season. Plus this quarter houses my man, Vince Spadea, who has a lot of points to defend from his last years result.
I predict for the second time this seaosn Gale Monfils defeats Rafael Nadal and makes it to his second career Grand Slam semi final.
Murray Quarter
Federer may have caught a break with Murray and Nadal both on the opposite side of the draw here. Murray finds a very favorable draw and could face either #22 Radek Stepanek or #14 Fernando Verdasco in the fourth round. Both Stepanek and Verdasco have had good starts to 2009 and that would be a very interesting match to see, but neither could give Murray trouble right now. On the other side of this quarter Murray faces two top 10 players with #9 James Blake and #5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Blake could face a tough third round match with Ernests Gulbis or #19 Igor Andreev. Tsonga’s first round match might be the hardest he has for a few rounds as he faces Juan Monaco.
There are a few interesting first round matches here, one obviously being Tsonga vs. Monaco as I already stated. The only other real interesting match up is Kei Nishikori vs. #31 Jurgen Melzer. There will be a lot of creativity in that match as Melzer has taken over for Albert Portas as the Drop Shot Dragon reincarnate.
The predict Murray will defeat Tsonga to gain some revenge against the man who beat him in the first round here last year and advance to his second Grand Slam semi final.
Djokovic Quarter
Djokovic has looked shaky to start 2009 and that is not good news as he comes in to defend his title. Fortunately for him the first seed he would see is #28 Paul-Henri Mathieu who he just dismantled this past week in Sydney. His half of this quarter is fairly weak with the other seeds being #16 Robin Soderling and #23 Mardy Fish. There are really no dangerous floaters and he should make it to the quarters easily. On the other side wait some dangerous players however. #7 Andy Roddick and #10 David Nalbandian both have found success down under and would pose big problems to Djokovic. Roddick could have a rematch with #32 Philipp Kohlschreiber, who took him out here last year in five sets. I expect Roddick to face off with Nalbandian in a very tight match which I think could go either way.
The interesting first round matches come from Sam Querry vs. Kohlschreiber and Julien Benneteau vs. Marcos Baghdatis. Querry is on the rise and could very well take out Kohlschreiber. Baghdatis can rally behind the Greek following he has in Australia and maybe make another magical run, he has the talent. Also good to see Taylor Dent back on tour, as faces a qualifier in Round 1.
I predict the David Nalbandian defeats Djokovic to make it back to another Australian Open semi final.
Federer Quarter
Federer has some talented players in his half of this quarter, but most of them are players who are not very mentally strong. He could face #26 Marat Safin in the third round, which could be trouble because Safin seems to get up for the big guys, and when he gets up for them, he can beat them. After that Federer would face #15 Stan Wawrinka or #20 Tomas Berdych in the fourth round. Federer handles Berdych when they play, and we’ll get a feel for Stan as they play each other the day before in the final of the Kooyong Classic exhibition. Not to mention they won the Gold in Beijing as a doubles team in the Olympics. On the other side #8 Juan Martin del Potro is the other top 10 with rising start #19 Marin Cilic as well. #11 David Ferrer is out there grinding as usual, but his results have declined recently. Cilic vs. del Potro would be a fantastic match in the quarters.
Berdych faces a tough first round in enigmatic American Robby Ginepri. You never know what you’ll get from either of these players really. Feliciano Lopez vs. Gilles Muller will be a battle of attacking lefties which should produce some interesting points.
I feel Federer will make it yet another Grand Slam semi final defeating del Potro in the quarters.
